According to the semiconductor Research Office of TrendForce, the global smartphone production performance in the third quarter was driven by the loosening of epidemic prevention measures and the demand for peak season celebrations. The total production volume in the third quarter reached 336 million, a quarterly increase of 20%, the largest single-quarter increase in recent years.
Looking forward to the fourth quarter, it is expected that the market will continue to be affected by the effect of Huawei’s ban, and the beneficiary brands will maintain a positive production and material preparation mode. With the help of Apple’s new machine, the total production volume in this quarter is expected to reach 351 million , a quarterly increase of 4%.
Overall, although the single-quarter production volume in the second half of 2020 is not as good as the same period last year, in terms of quarterly growth, it can be seen that the market has gradually recovered from the decline of the epidemic. However, the epidemic crisis is still the biggest disruptive factor, coupled with the uncertainty of the international situation and wafer foundry capacity constraints, there are still variables in the future industry development trend.
In the third quarter, only Samsung and Xiaomi increased their market share among the top six brands, and Apple fell to fourth place due to the delay in the release of new phones.
Samsung’s production volume in the third quarter was 78 million units, ranking first in the world in terms of market share, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of nearly 42%, reflecting that the brand’s main sales areas in Europe, the United States and other places have returned to sales under the subsidy policies of various governments. temperature. In the fourth quarter, with the end of festival distribution in Europe, the United States and other places, and the crowding out effect of Apple’s new phone announcement, Samsung’s production volume is estimated to be revised down to about 62 million units.
The production volumes of OPPO (including OPPO, OnePlus, realme) and Xiaomi in the third quarter were 45 million and 44.5 million, respectively, up 64% and 51% quarter-on-quarter. Due to the similar production numbers, they tied for second place in the world.
OPPO, Xiaomi, and vivo have all raised their production targets because they are expected to be the main beneficiaries of Huawei’s decline in market share. This trend will continue in the fourth quarter. However, the shortage of foundry capacity will prevent the production targets from being met. Based on the current situation It is estimated that the production volume of OPPO and Xiaomi in the fourth quarter will be 47 million and 46 million.
In the third quarter, Apple produced only 42 million units due to the delay in the release of new phones, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2%, ranking fourth globally with Huawei. The new iPhone 12 series in the fourth quarter are all equipped with 5G applications. Although the BOM cost (BOM cost) has increased compared with the iPhone 11, Apple has also adopted an active pricing strategy to boost the high-end mobile phone market. Due to the transfer of Huawei’s high-end mobile phone orders, its production volume in the fourth quarter will increase to 74.1 million units.
In the third quarter, Huawei produced 42 million units, down 19% quarter-on-quarter, and tied for fourth place in the world with Apple. Since no new phones were launched in the fourth quarter, the estimated production volume will be revised down to 30 million units. However, the split of Honor will not affect TrendForce’s full-year production target forecast for Huawei.
Huawei’s high inventory strategy after the ban will help mitigate the impact of the third wave of U.S. sanctions on August 17, and based on the consideration of balancing quarterly production performance, the future will also focus on stabilizing quarterly production. If the relevant component suppliers fail to obtain their shipment licenses in time, Huawei will face a component supply fault at the end of the first quarter or the second quarter of 2021.
Vivo, ranked sixth in the world, is also expected to benefit from the market share released by Huawei to increase market distribution. Therefore, the production volume in the third quarter reached 30 million, a quarterly increase of 13%; in the fourth quarter, it is expected to reach 35 million. branch.
The recent tension between China and India has brought a lot of sales pressure to OPPO, Xiaomi, and vivo, which focus on the Indian market. With a very competitive price advantage, a significant decline in market share has not yet been observed.
Get rid of the haze of the epidemic, the total number of smartphones in 2021 is expected to exceed 1.3 billion
TrendForce estimates that the total global smartphone production in 2020 will remain at 1.246 billion units, with an annual decline of 11%; looking forward to 2021, the industry is expected to gradually shake off the impact of the epidemic, and the total production volume will likely reach 1.358 billion units. An annual increase of 9%.
In terms of industrial development, this year and next year will also focus on the topic of 5G. As mobile processor manufacturers expand 5G chips down to the majority of mid-end applications, it is expected to drive the rapid increase in the penetration rate of 5G mobile phones next year, from 20% this year to 40%. to make.
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